Are we in recession??!!

Are we in a recession already?
According to the latest data it seems or we are already or very close, at least in the US, and if the US economy is in recession and still being the biggest in terms of nominal $ in the world, probably the world economy will follow suit, even as the EM economies are forecast to keep growing at healthy levels, but not enough to off set the weak US and European economic present state.


Let's look at this great chart (courtesy of John Mauldin and street talk advisor's):

As we can see in this chart the US economy is already or very close to recession, and even this being a new formed index, not just the creator have a great street credentials but also the components they used are leading indicators and highly correlated to predicting correctly recessions/growth!

At the same time we have the serious problems in Europe, where not just governments are cutting spending, to balance their overstretched finances plus the banking system there is insolvent, at least mostly of it, therefore will create more pressure in the GDP growth because banks are cutting the amount of money loaned to the broad economy, as a result we saw for i.e last week a lower then forecast German GDP, which is not just the powerhouse of Europe but also is the backer of the ESFS fund created to support the weaker peripheral economies as the case of the PIGS.

The last week, after a start with a relief rally, saw in the end, big losses in all major indexes, not just for the lack of conviction by investor in this market but also because August is a weak month anyway as many traders/investors are in holidays.

In my opinion we still didn't saw a low in this market, as the bond markets are telling us, because it keep going lower in terms of yields, which is a sign that worst times are to come, when investors are willing to accept rela negatives yields to park their money, this is normally a good sign and more we are not seeing an inverted yield, which means recession on the way or already present, because of the QE programs created by the FED which artificially maintains short term  yields low.

Resuming WE ARE GOING LOWER!!

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What a day...what a week!!

After almost two years of silence in my adventures of blogging I am back and what a week to be back, worst in a blog where I talk about how to make money in the markets, economic issues and anything I feel is pertinent!

Yesterdays we saw a sell off only equal to the dark days of the crisis of 2008, where we saw the Dow jones index (Index of the 30 largest industrial US companies) plunging over 530 points...Ouchhh!

Why you may ask, well several reasons, but mainly is the debt problems in Europe, which started with the peripheral countries, the so called PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), but now the problems are spread to the 3rd and 4th biggest European economies, Italy and Spain!

To add to this already complex problem, now we add as well the problems with US economy, with the anecdotal fight over the debt ceiling raise, where the both main parties try to use this event to score points with their electorates and extended the debate to include deficit reduction; not that this issue was not over due, but the moment and the event the utilise to raise this debate just created more uncertainty to the markets and in the end deliver little results for the "bang" it created!?!

So, this weeks sell off was just a reflex of the investor sentiment that it is out there, coupled with the increasing evidence that the  world economy is slowing down faster than previously thought, and as result OIL for example felt to $85 handle, price level not seen for a few long months, and oil normally is a leading indicator of things to come!!

It seems finnally we are waking up ...

It seems my calls for oil to fall, or that was a suckers rally were right...finnally it seems the fundamentals are just catching up.
The market is full of oil and the correspondent derivate products, so is not a suprise we are starting to see a major correction in the price of the barrel, I attribute the last rally to speculation by retail and some instituitional investing, nevertheless if we don't see massive buying coming back through for example the way of ETF buying I believe we will see oil back to the low $50's...

Oil shooting up...again!

It seems the bulls have the upper hand again, the reason this time being one more attack in one of shell pipeline in nigeria.
To me they are starting to running out of reasons to push the prices up, not just because demand still did not pick up, plus the fact of global trade, even is showing signs of stabilising, is still colapsed.
In my humble opinion the latest "green shoots" have been no more then a re-stocking of inventories which logically would manifest it self by a increase on demand for commodities , including oil. Now the problem is where is the demand for this new stock?
That is the next factor which will determine if we have legs for the next push up .

Dilemma!

I am finding my self in a big dilemma...should i try to change university or keep my self on the same university until the end of the course?
This doubts started surging after a meeting with my personal tutor, which by the way an excellent teacher and also my teacher, this because I "showed" some doubts related to the commitment of not just some of my fellow students but also of some of the teachers. I know it is not their fault I am a mature student, with some more knowledge in the area of financial markets and trading then my colleagues, but in terms of commitment maybe my experience and the fact of not wanting to waste more time are big contributors factors for my feeling of sometimes I am not learning what I think I should!
Put this together with the factor of my university is not on the top of the "stupid" tables, and bang! My doubts and fears all in enhanced level, in terms of the prospects I have as a graduate trying to go to jobs markets , which I hope will be a buoyant one by the time I graduate.
I do honestly believe it doesn't matter which university you came from, what it matters is the commitment of the student , which will be reflected on his final grades, but it seems the potential employers do not see it this way, the old cliche of where did you study is still very much alive, not that I put in question the quality of the teaching on those institutions will be many times betters, but that does not invalidate the good work other universities are doing, again the commitment of the student it can make up for the difference.
I also believe a university reputation is made by their fellow graduates, so, in principle a university can climb those "classification tables" and through the years improve there stats, but here is where the factor student commitment have more weight, and my problem and my "fears" reside actually there, because at the present moment in terms of colleagues commitment and knowledge or the thirst for it is very questionable, and makes all those doubts and fears I have been feeling become bigger, making me make the terrible question , should I look to another university to finish my course?
But please don't take my present university for all is bad, because it isn't , we actually have excellent research and study venues, excellent list of up to date resources like the library and computer labs, etc...but the doubts are still there!
What should I do? I realise this must be a very personal decision and that there is nobody out there with a magic answer...so we will see.

Bear market rally?

There we are at a crossroads point. There is been a massive rally on the last four weeks, based on a view of potential "green shots" on the economy. I do honestly think is noting more than a massive bear rally, which by the way is healthy to happen, more all has been based in false hopes, I'll explain, when I say false hopes not that the numbers are lying, they are just being put in a contest where the expectation been too low so a stabilisation of the deterioration of the economy is seen as more positive than actually is, at least in my view, and once investors start again come back to earth and admit they actually were putting themselves ahead of the possible recovery, which is still far by the way, they will start selling again or at least taking profits!
I do believe is still didn't saw the lows for this bear market, because if you look to it in terms of valuations and compared the numbers to other recession, at least the ones as deep as we saw until now one this last recession we are still living, you soon realise the valuations at the moment are still to much high, to the point where we can say we saw a bottom, we still didn't saw pure capitulation even on the 6Th of march wasn't still capitulation.
We just need to look at volume, this rally has been based in low volume, characteristic of trap bear market rally !
I am looking maybe we still see a bit more advances , maybe to the 874 level on the s&p but if we get there the bears will come back on masses, giving us the potential for a massive sell off !

just close my short

just close my short position on ES ...coming from the 870 level was not bad at all... I do believe we will have a small rally for the next day or two !!!